Bridgegate trial begins today: How does it all end?

The trial of Bridget Anne Kelly and Bill Baroni in the Bridgegate scandal opens today in Newark. Some observers of Jersey politics and law talk about what about the possible outcome.

After three years, a legislative inquiry, a federal investigation and one guilty plea, the corruption trial of two former allies of Gov. Chris Christie in the George Washington Bridge scandal finally gets underway today with opening statements before a jury in Newark.

On trial are Bridget Anne Kelly, the governor's former deputy chief of staff, and Bill Baroni, once a close associate and deputy executive director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, which operates the bridge. They are charged with nine counts of conspiracy, fraud and related charges in connection with the September 2013 toll lane shutdowns at the bridge--an incident that caused massive traffic problems in Fort Lee in what prosecutors called an act of political retribution targeting Mayor Mark Sokolich for his refusal to endorse Christie for re-election.

What happens next?

The high-profile criminal trial, which has garnered national news coverage as the investigation played out against the failed presidential aspirations of the governor, has already deflated the stature of the once popular Republican who suffered a sharp reversal of fortune despite the lack of evidence that he was aware of the political stunt, or condoned it.

Questions remain. Will there be new revelations and will the testimony show just who knew about the scheme? Who were the unindicted conspirators who were involved in the plan, but never charged? And will former Christie aide Christina Genovese Renna--who is expected to testify at the trial--drop any further bombshells like the text she sent a colleague during a December 2013 news conference claiming that the governor "flat out lied" when he said none of his senior staff had known about the plot.

Four observers of New Jersey politics and law were asked to predict what may happen during the trial. Here is what they expect:

 

Matthew Hale
Associate Professor of Political Science and Public Affairs
Seton Hall University

Will Kelly and Baroni be convicted?

What did Christie know?

Is this much ado about nothing?

The people of New Jersey have already "convicted" Chris Christie and the entire of political class of being mean, revengeful and out of touch with how much a traffic jam matters to regular people. Christie's poll numbers are so low in New Jersey I doubt he could get elected dog catcher in Mendham (his hometown). So at the end of the day I don't see much of an appetite for meaningful ethics reforms once this trial is over. New Jersey voters just want to move on to the next governor and get this behind them.

 

Brigid Harrison
Professor of Political Science and Law
Montclair State University

A split verdict?

I think it is more likely that Baroni will be found guilty than Kelly, who may be perceived as both more sympathetic and less responsible for the activities that ensued if she is able to demonstrate that she "was just following orders," as many people believe.

Will the trial show Christie knew more than he claims?

It is likely, particularly with (David) Wildstein's statements. There is now considerable more pressure on the defendants' attorneys (particularly Michael Critchley, who represents Kelly) to show that the governor knew, simply because of the "he flat out lied" text from a Christie staff member. Proving that Governor Christie knew more than was indicated seems central to Kelly's defense.

Will this be a wake-up call about NJ politics?

It will, like Bid Rig (the corruption investigation that ensnared mayors, legislators and other elected officials) and the many other scandals the state has seen, serve as a temporary wake-up call. But the reality is that politics is full of politicians who egos allow them to believe that something like this could never happen to them. And yet it continues to do so...

 

How does the defense make its case?

 

Will there be any blockbusters?

A blockbuster revelation would not surprise me. After all, who would have thought that a governor with an approval rating in the 70s would so quickly find himself wallowing in the depths of the 20s, all because  of the pettiness of unnecessary political retribution.

But is this all politics as usual?

When FDU asked New Jerseyans if the Bridgegate affair was simply par for the course in state politics, or something that really goes beyond the pale, two thirds said they find the behavior of state officials atypical, even for New Jersey standards. So, this suggests that if the public has anything to say, Bridgegate may lead to more than navel gazing among officials for how state business is conducted and how elected officials conduct themselves.  But, who knows? There's a lot vested in the status quo and I wouldn't be too quick to assume government will do much to make nice with the public.

Ted Sherman may be reached at tsherman@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @TedShermanSL. Facebook: @TedSherman.reporter. Find NJ.com on Facebook.